A morphed version of an ABP News opinion poll has been shared on social media with a misleading claim that the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Madhya Pradesh will be in a closer-than-expected contest against the opposition Congress in the state's upcoming assembly election.
The video shows Congress' lead with a good margin in the ABP-CVoter survey and thus, posing a challenge to the Shivraj Singh Chouhan-led BJP government in the state.
BOOM found that the video showing ABP News opinion poll has been digitally manipulated. In the original survey, ABP News showed different figures hinting at a close contest between the Congress and the BJP in the state.
The countdown for the assembly elections has already begun in Madhya Pradesh as the political parties are now evaluating their list of candidates for the upcoming polls. As per reports, the BJP is yet to declare its second list after its announcement of the first list of candidates sparked major controversy within the party. The Congress leaders, on the other hand, recently said that they have not yet finalised their candidates for the assembly polls.
The video is being shared with a Hindi caption that translates to, "Hold your heart a little... There is panic and stampede in BJP due to latest survey. The chances of saving the government are almost over."
(Original Text in Hindi: थोड़ा दिल थाम के .... ताज़ा सर्वे से बीजेपी में हड़कंप, भगदड़,सरकार बचाने की संभावना लगभग ख़त्म।)
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Fact Check
BOOM first performed a related keyword search about the opinion poll broadcast by ABP News and found that the outlet published an article related to the same on June 27, 2023.
An excerpt from the ABP News report reads, "The ABP-CVoter survey has revealed a close contest between the two largest parties in the state — the BJP and the Congress. With a neck-and-neck race to power in the 230-member Madhya Pradesh Assembly, a hung Vidhan Sabha wouldn't be surprising." (sic.)
Taking a cue, we ran a similar search on YouTube and found a longer version of the telecast on ABP News' official YouTube channel. When compared to the viral video, we found that the opinion poll figures are different in the live streaming done by the channel on June 27, 2023.
The live streaming related to the ABP-CVoter survey can be watched below.
We noticed that the viral video shows probability of seats that the parties can expect to get in several major regions in Madhya Pradesh. The areas include Chambal, Malwa, Mahakoshal, Baghelkhand, Bhopal and Nimar region in the state.
When compared to the original opinion poll by ABP News, we found that the viral video is dubbed, and the poll figures are manipulated in favour of the Congress.
Opinion Poll - Chambal Region
The viral clip claims that ABP News aired the survey saying the BJP has a chance to win 5-6 seats, 28-30 seats for the Congress while other parties might win 0-2 seats in the Chambal. We noticed that the original CVoter survey predicted 7-11 seats for the BJP, 22-26 seats for the Congress and 0-1 seats for other parties in the same region.
On the other hand, the viral clip is dubbed and digitally altered when it showed the region-wise opinion poll results. A male voice in the clip can be heard mentioning the fake results that are altered digitally over an ABP News graphic broadcasted on the show.
The visual comparison for the same can be seen below.
An excerpt from the same telecast about the survey can be watched on an ABP News bulletin uploaded on June 27, 2023.
We also noticed that the viral clip, in the name of ABP News, claimed that the Congress can get 27-30 seats out of 45 in Malwa, 26-29 seats out of 42 in Mahakoshal, 40-42 seats out of 56 in Baghelkhand, 13-16 seats out of 25 in Bhopal and 16 seats out of 28 in Nimar.
However, the original ABP-CVoter survey predicted that the Congress has a chance to win 18-22 seats in Malwa, 18-22 seats in Mahakoshal, 30-34 seats in Baghelkhand, 3-7 seats in Bhopal and 11-15 in Nimar. The opinion poll also showed that the BJP might win 23-27 seats out of 45 in Malwa, 20-24 seats out of 42 in Mahakoshal, 21-25 seats out of 56 in Baghelkhand, 18-22 seats out of 25 in Bhopal and 11-15 seats out of 28 in Nimar.
The comparison between the results showed in the viral clip and the original the ABP News opinion poll results can be seen below.
Next, we noticed that the clip also manipulated the data showed regarding the probable number of seats and the vote percentage for the political parties in Madhya Pradesh.
While the morphed clip showed the BJP could get 38 per cent votes and 66-75 seats in the upcoming election, the original survey predicted that the party could get 44 per cent votes (same for the Congress) and 106-118 seats in the state.
On the other hand, the viral clip mentioned 150-158 seats for the Congress. The actual opinion poll done by the ABP News said that the party has the chance to win 108-120 seats in the state.
ABP News journalist Brajesh Rajput also tweeted mentioning that the viral clip is digitally altered and created using an old survey done by the channel.
Click here to view the tweet.
ABP News also published an article on September 9, 2023, debunking the false claims made in the widely-circulated video.
