Gujarat Elections 2022: Opinion Poll Graphics Predicting AAP Win Are Fake
BOOM found that the opinion polls being attributed to India TV, T9 Bharatvarsh, News 24, and India Today predicting an AAP win in Gujarat are fake and were not aired by these channels.
A set of four opinion polls being shared on social media claiming to be from different news channels predicting an Aam Aadmi Party victory in the upcoming 2022 Gujarat state elections are fake and were not aired by these news channels.
These graphics are being shared claiming that opinion polls were conducted by India TV, TV9 Bharatvarsh, News 24 and India Today showing a victory for AAP in the state election.
The numbers range from giving AAP - 93 to 98 seats, Bharatiya Janata Party - 64 to 71 seats, and Congress - 7 to 13 seats, out of a total of 182 assembly seats.
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The same set of fake opinion polls are being shared on Facebook with the caption when translated reads, "from the cities, villages, towns of Gujarat to the national news channels of the country, Kejriwal is the only one who is there"
(In Hindi - गुजरात के शहरों, गांवों , कस्बों से लेकर देश के नेशनल न्यूज़ चैनलों तक केजरीवाल ही केजरीवाल छाये हुए हैं)
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BOOM found that all four opinion polls shown in the news graphics purported to be from India TV, News 24, TV9 Bharatvarsh, and India Today are fake and were not broadcasted by these channels
This fake graphic purports to show an opinion poll predicting that the BJP is likely to get 67 seats, AAP 98 seats, and Congress 13 seats, out of 182 seats.
However, we did not find any such opinion poll put out by India TV recently matching the numbers predicted in the above graphic.
India TV on July 30, 2022, had put out an India TV-Matterize survey which predicted that if the elections were held that day, BJP would win 108 seats with a vote share of 56%, Congress would win 55 seats with a vote share of 31%, and AAP would win 16 seats with a vote share of 9%.
This can be seen from the 2.45 minutes timestamp
Additionally, on running a reverse image search on the viral graphic, we found an old India TV opinion poll on the Purvanchal region in Uttar Pradesh in January 2022 before the February 2022 UP state elections. The template matches the viral graphic.
On comparing both, we can see how the graphic has been edited with.
India Today - Axis My India
This fake graphic purports to show an opinion poll by India Today - Axis My India predicting that the AAP is likely to get 94-98 seats, BJP 67-71, and Congress 7-11, out of 182 seats.
However, we could not find any such opinion poll put out by India Today - Axis My India on the Gujarat elections predicting these numbers.
BOOM then reached out to the Indian polling agency Axis My India who confirmed that the viral graphic is fake and no such opinion poll has been published on the Gujarat elections by the agency.
"We haven't released any news and numbers regarding Gujarat opinion poll," Malladi Kartikeya, GET-Marketing, Axis My Inda told us via email on the viral graphic being falsely attributed to the agency.
News 24 channel
This fake graphic purports to show an opinion poll by News 24 predicting that the AAP would get 95-99 seats, BJP would get 65-69, and Congress 7-11, out of 182 seats.
We did not find any such opinion poll with these seat numbers put out by News 24. Additionally, BOOM contacted a News 24 journalist and anchor who stated that the viral graphic is fake.
However, we found a Twitter poll that News 24 tweeted on October 17, 2022, asking, "Whose government would form this time in Gujarat?" which final results showed 34 percent selected AAP, 34 percent selected Congress, and 27 percent selected BJP out of the 1,41,259 votes polled on Twitter.
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The two fake graphics being shared purported to show an opinion poll by TV9 Bharatvarsh, show a different set of numbers. While one graphic gives AAP - 93-97, BJP - 64-68, and Congress - 9-13, the other graphic shows a different set of numbers - AAP - 95-99, BJP 64-68 and Congress 8-12.
A particular polling agency or TV channel do not usually post two different set of numbers of seats for the same opinion poll on a particular election, which indicates that it s not genuine.
Additionally, a TV9 Network representative confirmed to BOOM that the viral graphics being attributed to the channel are fake and the channel has not released any such opinion poll on the upcoming Gujarat elections.
"There is no such survey done either by TV9 Gujarati or TV9 Bharatvarsh, these are absolutely fake," the TV9 Bharatvarsh representative told BOOM.
Furthermore, at the time of writing this fact-check dates for the Gujarat elections were not yet announced.
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