Cyclone Nisarga has formed over east-central Arabian sea and is expected to cross the coast on June 3. The cyclone will be the first of its kind to hit Maharashtra in 129 years in the month of June. BOOM spoke to Anand Kumar Sharma Deputy Director-General, India Meteorological Department (IMD) to understand more about the cyclone and its impact.
Areas affected
According to Sharma, Cyclone Nisarga is bringing the monsoon with it. "We knew that this low-pressure system was forming, and was moving in a northerly direction along the coast along with strengthening the monsoon current. We knew it will move in the northwards, and later change its course to the north-eastern direction to hit Gujarat and Maharashtra coast."
The cyclone is anticipated to hit the coast on the afternoon of 3 June, and affected areas might be Harihareshwar in Raigarh district, Daman, and close to Alibagh, near the coastal area.
Heavy rainfall and gusty winds upto the speed of 120 km per/hour are expected to hit the affected areas. Anand Kumar Sharma says that Mumbai might not have winds that are these strong. "Mumbai may not have winds as strong as 120 km/hr. Areas might have winds that reach 80,90 and close to 100km/hr as well. This system will carry moisture and help in the progression of monsoon. It might move towards Madhya Pradesh from Maharashtra, and bringing rain with it. Delhi, UP and Uttrakhand will also be impacted," said Sharma to BOOM.
Impact of the cyclone
Sharma explains the impact of the gusty winds, "In these winds, there is a possibility that power lines can be destroyed. Trees can be uprooted. Kaccha houses can be blown away, there can be damage to pakka houses. It could lead to water logging in some areas. In Palghar, Western Ghats, there is deforestation, so it could lead to landslides. The mountainous region can face flash floods."
Time period of Cyclone Nisarg
The intensity of a cyclone starts decreasing when it crosses the coast because its fuel supply is cut off, which is the moisture from the sea. The other reason for the decrease in intensity when it reaches the coast is friction. There's a lot of friction on land, and the speed of the cyclone starts decreasing. The IMD deputy director explained that the maximum impact of the cyclone will be on the afternoon of June 3 and evening in Mumbai. He adds, "By 4th morning the winds will be 30 to 40 km/hr. So, its only for a few hours, you have high gusty winds and then things are going to slow down."
Information sources for the cyclone
Sharma points out that IMD is the best source of information for the cyclone because, "IMD has very accurate cyclone forecasts, made by people who are accountable. It shows the radar and satellite pictures of the cyclone too."
Climate change and Cyclone Nisarga
Sharma doesn't think so. He says, "It's too early to link things to climate change. This is the season for the cyclone. March, April, May, June is the season, but luckily, this time we only got it in the second one. Last year we had a lot more cyclones."
Sharma also signs off with a forecast of a good monsoon. Sharma says, "Till 5th and 6th June, there will be a lot of rain. Our models have indicated earlier that the impact of monsoon will weaken in the 2nd week, and it will pick up again in the third and fourth week. During the next four months, India is going to get 102% of its average rainfall with an error of plus and minus 4%."
