A graphic, put out by the social media channels of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has missed a negative sign before India's gross domestic product estimates for 2020 released on January 26 by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The graphic shows India growing at 8% in its 2020 estimates, whereas the IMF in its latest World Economic Outlook publication shows that India would contract by 8% (which is negative growth, or -8%) in financial year 2021 (corresponding to the 2020 column). In calendar year 2020, India's economy would shrink 7.6% (that's a negative growth, or -7.6%).
Without the negative sign, India is placed as the fastest growing economy among those economies mentioned in the graphic, growing even faster than China's 2.3%. However, to show economic contractions in other economies it has used in the graphic, a negative sign has been used.
In actuality, among the economies on the list, only China is poised to witness an economic growth this year. In 2020, other economies are estimated to witness a negative contraction of various magnitudes. However, the poster correctly identifies that India will grow 11.5% in 2021 (which corresponds to fiscal year 2022).
Read the IMF's release below.
The poster can be seen below. India's estimates for 2020 and 2021 are highlighted in orange. The '8' in 2020 has no negative sign, while the estimates for all other economies except China do.
The BJP first posted it on their Facebook account, and then on its Twitter account. They can be seen below.
Archived version of their Facebook post here.
The archive of the tweet can be found here.
What has the IMF said?
The IMF, in the January update of its flagship World Economic Outlook publication has said India will witness a 8% contraction in FY21 or a -8% change in its real GDP growth in FY21.
In its original graphic clearly shows a negative sign before India's GDP estimate of -8% in 2020. It can be seen originally with the IMF here.
For calendar year 2020, the shrinkage would be 7.6%, close to the contraction for the full fiscal year of 8%.
The IMF, however, has raised India's GDP estimates from 8.8% in the October update to its World Economic Outlook publication, to 11.5% - an upgrade of 2.7 percentage points which the IMF identifies as a notable revision. The publication also mentions a better than expected economic showing in the second quarter of the ongoing financial year. These high growth rates would be due to a favourable base effect - since India will contract markedly this year, it will bounce back faster in percentage terms.
This is not the first time that the BJP has muddled up a poster attributed to the IMF. Last August, it tweeted GDP estimates of India according to the IMF's April World Economic Outlook edition, but was actually lowered downwards in June. Read our story below.
Update: On January 28, the BJP has deleted this graphic from its social media channels and updated it with the correct number - which is -8%.
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