India, on Wednesday, suspended the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) for the first time since its inception. This marks a major shift in a pact that has endured major wars and years of cross-border hostility, including terror attacks backed by Pakistan.
The move came a day after a deadly terror strike in Pahalgam, where gunmen targeted Hindu tourists, killing 26 people—among them a local Kashmiri and a foreign national.
“The Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 will be held in abeyance with immediate effect, until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism,” Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said.
Apart from this, India has announced a series of diplomatic measures targeting Pakistan, including shutting down the Attari border crossing, revoking visas, and expelling multiple Pakistani officials from the country. However, suspension of IWT may have the most substantial ramifications.
What is Indus Water Treaty?
The roots of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) can be traced back to the aftermath of the Partition in August 1947, when British colonial rule ended and the subcontinent was divided into two independent nations—India and Pakistan. The division also split the vast and intricately linked irrigation network of Punjab, a region where the British had made significant infrastructure investments. The newly drawn boundary cut through this agricultural heartland, leaving both countries dependent on the same river systems originating in the Himalayas.
This created immediate tensions, as both India and Pakistan relied heavily on these waters for agriculture and food security. The urgent need to find a cooperative framework for water sharing became clear. After nearly a decade of negotiations—mediated by the World Bank—India’s Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistan’s President Ayub Khan signed the Indus Waters Treaty in Karachi on September 19, 1960.
The agreement outlines the distribution of six rivers and includes 12 Articles and 8 Annexures (A to H). As per the Treaty, India has exclusive rights to the waters of the Eastern Rivers—Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej—while Pakistan receives unrestricted use of the Western Rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.
Despite ongoing tensions, the IWT stands out as a rare example of enduring cooperation between the two nations and is often cited as one of the most successful water-sharing agreements in the world.
How can it affect Pakistan?
Pakistan is the lower riparian country in the Indus River system, meaning it is downstream from India, where the rivers originate. This geographical position places Pakistan at a disadvantage, making it heavily reliant on the upstream flow of water.
India's suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty could have far-reaching consequences for Pakistan, endangering its agricultural output, food security, and economic stability. Approximately 80% of Pakistan’s water supply comes from the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers — all of which originate in India.
These rivers are not only crucial for irrigation but also feed hydropower plants that generate a significant share of Pakistan’s electricity. A disruption in water flow could reduce power production and trigger energy shortages. Approximately 100% of Pakistan's hydropower generation is sourced from the Indus basin, encompassing the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers .
Compounding the crisis, Pakistan is already one of the most water-stressed nations globally, with per capita water availability falling below 1,000 cubic meters — the United Nations’ threshold for water scarcity, as noted in a 2018 IMF report.
Can India suspend the treaty unilaterally?
The Indus Waters Treaty is unique in that it contains no provision allowing either India or Pakistan to withdraw unilaterally. It has no expiry date, and any amendments require mutual agreement between the two countries.
While India may express its intent to revisit or suspend the Treaty, such actions have no standing under international law unless backed by a jointly ratified agreement. In other words, neither side can legally walk away from the Treaty on its own.
That said, the IWT does contain a built-in dispute resolution framework. Article IX, along with Annexures F and G, sets out a graded mechanism for addressing disagreements — beginning with the Permanent Indus Commission, escalating to a neutral expert if required, and ultimately culminating in arbitration by a court of competent jurisdiction.
Importantly, the Treaty permits India to construct hydroelectric projects on the western rivers — Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab — provided they follow the “run-of-the-river” design. This means the projects must not store significant amounts of water or obstruct its flow in a way that would compromise Pakistan’s share as the downstream riparian.
Even with India's recent announcement to suspend the Treaty, experts note that there would be no immediate disruption to water flows. India currently lacks the necessary infrastructure to either halt the rivers’ flow into Pakistan or reroute the water for its own use.
India’s recent announcement to suspend the Treaty has drawn sharp criticism from Pakistan. Energy Minister Awais Leghari condemned the decision as “an act of water warfare” and described it as “cowardly” and “illegal,” according to a report by Dawn.
Echoing this sentiment, Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar called India’s response disproportionate and inappropriate, stating, “There is no evidence … expressing their anger like this is inappropriate.”
Recent disputes over IWT
For decades, the Indus Waters Treaty remained largely uncontested despite persistent tensions between India and Pakistan. However, controversy began to surface in the late 1990s when India announced the Baglihar Hydropower Project on the Chenab River in Jammu and Kashmir.
Since then, hydroelectric projects in the region have become a major flashpoint. Pakistan has consistently raised objections to the design of two such "run-of-the-river" projects, arguing that they violate the Treaty by potentially altering water flow. The second project was Kishanganga Hydroelectric Project, located on the Kishanganga River (a tributary of the Jhelum River), also in Jammu and Kashmir.
India, citing Pakistan’s repeated resistance to constructive dialogue, issued its first-ever formal notice in January 2023 seeking to “modify” the Indus Waters Treaty. A second notice followed in September 2024, this time requesting a “review and modification” of the agreement.
Both communications were issued under Article XII (3) of the Treaty, which allows modifications through mutual agreement and ratification by both governments.
In a related development, the Neutral Expert appointed by the World Bank in 2022 ruled in January 2025 that he had the authority to adjudicate the dispute over the design specifications of the contested hydropower projects.
