Rape Cases Rise Under Modi Govt? How The Congress Got It Wrong


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An activist of the Socialist Unity Centre of India (SUCI) holds a poster during a protest against the recent gang-rape of a woman in a moving car, according to local media, in Kolkata, India May 31, 2016. REUTERS/Rupak De Chowdhuri


On May 16, 2017, the All India National Congress organised a press briefing to review the three year performance of the Narendra Modi government.


During the press conference, the Congress party attacked the BJP government for its failures over the past three years. The Congress party’s newly appointed social media chief Divya Spandana raised concerns about women’s safety under the Modi government. Speaking about the unspent Nirbhaya fund, Divya argued that despite the government’s claims on measures taken to protect women, there has been a 22.2% rise in rape cases (no time period mentioned). She also claimed that only 20 out of the 660 proposed one-stop centres have been made operational and concluded by saying “I don’t think the BJP government is doing anything for the security of women today”.




Claim 1: There has been a 22.2% rise in rape cases.


From the above statement, a layman would interpret, that since the Modi government came into power (from May 2014 till date), the percentage increase of rape cases is 22.2%. However the National Crime Records Bureau or NCRB data quoted by Divya and the Congress only gives out information on registered crimes till the year 2015.


                            Source: NCRB

The percentage increase of rape cases were calculated based on the Quinquennial average i.e. during 2010-2014 and the number of cases during 2015. The 22.2% figure is arrived at after comparing the number of rape cases in 2015 with the Quinquennial average of 28349 cases. An average of 5 years is taken, in order to wipe out any seasonal fluctuation, said a source from the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB). For instance, if we had to calculate the percentage change of 2013 from 2012, there is an abnormal increase in the number of rape cases. Interestingly, this was also the time when Congress led UPA was in power.


Looking at the number of rape cases, the NCRB Crime Report show an increase of 38% in 2013 (33707 cases) vs 2012 (24293 cases), 9% in 2014 (36,735 cases) vs 2013 and a decrease of 5.7% was reported in 2015 (34,651 cases) vs 2014.


Source: NCRB


While the Congress is right about the 22.2% rise in rape cases, it is also necessary to point out that it is not an apples-to-apples comparison. The BJP can claim that on simple comparison between 2014 and 2015, the number of reported cases have seen a decline, even though that does not necessarily suggest any declining trend.


The NCRB data also shows that the overall crime against women, have continuously increased during 2011-2014. There was a small decline in 2015.


Note: “Crime rate for crimes committed against women has been calculated using only female population which is based on mid-year projected female population for the year 2015.”

Source: NCRB


Claim 2: Of 660 One Stop centres, only 20 are operational.


BOOM analysis found this claim to be wrong as the numbers reported by the government in the Parliament are much higher.


One Stop centre Scheme was established in April 2015, to support women affected by violence. The scheme aims to facilitate access to an integrated range of services including medical aid, police assistance, legal aid/case management, psycho-social counselling, temporary support services to women affected by violence.


In the most recent Lok Sabha question, dated 3rd Feb, 2017, the ministry of women and child development states that 150 additional centres have been taken up in the second phase during 2016-2017. The ministry said that it has approved all the proposals received from the States/UT’s out of which 68 centres are operational.


But it also seems that the government cannot make up its mind on how many centres have actually been operationalised. A few days earlier on 27th January, 2017, the ministry had issued a press release to counter press reports that the Nirbhaya fund was not being fully utilised. The release said, “186 OSCs are approved to be set up in the country. So far, 79 One Stop Centres have become operational. All the 186 centres are expected to be operational by July, 2017.”


However, it would be unfair to draw a conclusion on the Modi government’s 3-year performance with regard to women’s safety based on the Crime report 2015, when practically speaking he had only completed 18 months since coming to power in May 2014. A better analysis can be done once the data for the year 2016 is released by the NCRB.








  • Rather than pointing fingers to others both political parties both ruling and opposition should take initiatives to put a halt over rape cases in country… there efforts can really change the way we live with such crime in india.

  • Ketan Parekh

    Smita Mehta in our country politics does not works like we wish to have… we can only day dream and watch bollywood movies to give a halt on our imagination…

  • yes sir i agree with you in fact day dreaming can come true with efforts and hard work but changing political parties is like walking on a road with no destination.
    there is nothing we can do to change them but only thing we can do is to sit back and watch them..

  • Ketan Parekh

    It is only we who can bring the change only we can take steps to change the country… only because of us government gets a chance to govern us.. always think twice before electing a candidate.. our vote can really bring change to the society.. and always participate in voting because our one vote can make a huge difference.

  • Sanket kale

    Rather than blaming and comparing congress may had toked a step to stop rape crimes in India as they were ruling the country for more than 50 years… monkeys can evolve faster than our judiciary system..

  • Rahul Upadhyay

    I agree with you Sanket, before comparing our self to others we should think what we are capable of… and secondly judiciary system doesn’t needs a change.. we need change in governance the way India needs to get govern is been missing till date hope new government should change from governing to real public serving..

  • Nelson Makwana

    People don’t rape a girl, they rape there culture, education, morality, humanity, Parents pride and there self respect…. a rapist cannot control his lust he should hang because the person is not a human then why people want a human consideration in human rights…

  • Ketan Parekh

    True said nelson, No religion supports rape and women violence. when a person losses his conscious mind and don’t have any kind of moral values he abuses women and every man should respect a women more than he respect him self.

  • Ekta Bhatt

    raping a girl is less a crime more a sin… god punishes ever one who indulge sins…. karma always measures everyone equally.. rapist should never get human consideration because they are not human he deserve hang till death….

  • Bhavana Maurya

    Who ever’s party it is bjp or congress. the main point is that India is still a country where rape is a crime but convict gets bail easily and victims are left to die.. no one likes to help her and mostly react like a victim is un touchable.. there are hardly any men who will marry a rape victim… a biggest shame on Indian justifying system…

  • Aditya Pradhan

    BJP Government can not always be right there are many draw backs in governing system in BJP rule, and most of the ministers don’t have proper knowledge about there sectors.. as rape cases are been increased by 22% the graphical representation also shows the failure of the government..

  • Pratha Kundu

    Its not about in which ministery system rape’s crime raised or fall. rape should not happen in our country as we have so much trust on constitutional judgement, government should take care of such criminal activities happening in india.

  • Susmita Raorane

    Government is really doing a good job and we will have to accept it.. there are many other things where BJP government leads the way.. and it can lack back in certain things because somethings take a long to get changed.. and we will have to take it in positive manner..

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