A widely circulated social media post has claimed that the Institute of World Demographic Research Institute has predicted that Muslims will make up 84% of India's total population by 2041.
This claim is false. BOOM found that there is no institute by that name. Besides, available data indicates a declining trend in growth and fertility rates among all religious groups in recent decades.
The post provides demographic statistics about the Hindu and Muslim populations in India from 1948 to projected figures in 2041. It cites the "World Demographic Research Institute" and includes a series of data points with percentages for Hindu and Muslim populations over different years.
The false claim further says that India’s first Muslim Prime Minister will be elected in the 2030 general elections. It also urges people to forward the message to at least ten others as a way to "help in nation building."
BOOM ran a Google search for "World Demographic Research Institute" and found that no such institute exists.
Additionally, BOOM referred to data from the Census of India and the Pew Research Center to debunk the claim.
According to a 2021 report by the Pew Research Center, an American think-tank that conducts demographic research, it was predicted that by 2050, Muslims would account for only 18% of India's total population.
"In 2050, Hindus are projected to represent about 77% of Indians, Muslims 18%, and Christians still 2%," the report said.
Moreover, in the false post, the population percentage for Muslims in 2011 is quoted as 22.6% and for Hindus as 73.2%. However, this is incorrect.
According to the 2011 Census data, the population percentage of Muslims in the country is 17.22 crores or 14.2%, and for Hindus, it is 96.63 crores or 79.8%.
In absolute numbers, the Hindu population remains the largest religious group in the country. In 1951, when the first census of independent India was conducted, India had a population of around 36 crore people. Of this, over 84% (more than 30 crore people) belonged to the Hindu community, whereas only 3.5 crore (9.8%) were from the Muslim community.
By 2011, the Hindu population had increased to 96.6 crore people, and the Muslim population had grown to more than 17.2 crore people. While the share of Hindus in India's overall population decreased from 84% in 1951 to approximately 78% in 2011, they continue to form the majority of the population in the country. India has yet to conduct the census that was scheduled to take place in 2021.
Declining fertility rate among religious groups in India
India's Muslim community is projected to grow faster than its Hindu population, increasing from 14.4% in 2010 to over 18% by 2050. However, according to a 2015 Pew Research report, “Hindus will make up more than three-in-four Indians (76.7%) in 2050. Indeed, the number of Hindus in India will still be larger than the five largest Muslim populations in the world’s biggest Muslim countries (India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Nigeria and Bangladesh) combined.”
Moreover, the growth rate has declined more substantially for Muslims compared to Hindus over the past three decades, from 32.9% in 1981-1991 to 24.6% in 2001-2011. For Hindus, the growth rate fell from 22.7% to 16.8% over the same period.
Similarly, total fertility rates (TFR) among all religious groups are reducing. But the most prominent decline has been among Indian Muslim women, from 4.4 children per woman in 1992 to 2.36 in 2019-21, the latest year for which religion-wise data is available from India’s National Family Health Survey. Among Hindus it dropped from 3.3 children per woman to 1.94 during the same period.
They have highlighted that growth and fertility rates are not linked to religion but education and income levels. States with higher levels of education, healthcare, and overall socioeconomic development tend to have lower TFRs across all religious communities.
Various claims about the Muslim population ‘explosion’ in India are often created to incite communal tensions in the country. Previously, the Population Foundation of India had called out misinformation surrounding the exaggerated population figures among religious communities.
They had emphasized that growth and fertility rates are influenced not by religion but by factors such as education and income levels. States with higher levels of education, healthcare, and overall socioeconomic development generally exhibit lower Total Fertility Rates (TFRs) across all religious groups.