BOOM

Trending Searches

    SUPPORT
    BOOM

    Trending News

      • Fact Check 
        • Fast Check
        • Politics
        • Business
        • Entertainment
        • Social
        • Sports
        • World
      • Law
      • Explainers
      • News 
        • All News
      • Decode 
        • Impact
        • Scamcheck
        • Life
        • Voices
      • Media Buddhi 
        • Digital Buddhi
        • Senior Citizens
        • Videos
      • Web Stories
      • BOOM Research
      • BOOM Labs
      • Deepfake Tracker
      • Videos 
        • Facts Neeti
      • Home-icon
        Home
      • About Us-icon
        About Us
      • Authors-icon
        Authors
      • Team-icon
        Team
      • Careers-icon
        Careers
      • Internship-icon
        Internship
      • Contact Us-icon
        Contact Us
      • Methodology-icon
        Methodology
      • Correction Policy-icon
        Correction Policy
      • Non-Partnership Policy-icon
        Non-Partnership Policy
      • Cookie Policy-icon
        Cookie Policy
      • Grievance Redressal-icon
        Grievance Redressal
      • Republishing Guidelines-icon
        Republishing Guidelines
      • Fact Check-icon
        Fact Check
        Fast Check
        Politics
        Business
        Entertainment
        Social
        Sports
        World
      • Law-icon
        Law
      • Explainers-icon
        Explainers
      • News-icon
        News
        All News
      • Decode-icon
        Decode
        Impact
        Scamcheck
        Life
        Voices
      • Media Buddhi-icon
        Media Buddhi
        Digital Buddhi
        Senior Citizens
        Videos
      • Web Stories-icon
        Web Stories
      • BOOM Research-icon
        BOOM Research
      • BOOM Labs-icon
        BOOM Labs
      • Deepfake Tracker-icon
        Deepfake Tracker
      • Videos-icon
        Videos
        Facts Neeti
      Trending Tags
      TRENDING
      • #Ahmedabad Plane Crash
      • #G7 Summit
      • #Israel-Iran Conflict
      • #Narendra Modi
      • #Rahul Gandhi
      • #Arvind Kejriwal
      • #Deepfake
      • #Artificial Intelligence
      • Home
      • World
      • Why Putin Gambled On Airstrikes In...
      World

      Why Putin Gambled On Airstrikes In Syria – And What Might Come Next

      By - Scott Lucas |
      Published -  1 Oct 2015 8:39 PM IST
    • Boomlive

      UN-United-States-Russia

      While many Russians have been sympathetic to Putin's stand in Ukraine, will this remain the case when pressure piles up on the public exchequer as Russia begins airstrikes in Syria?

      For those watching closely, the signal for Russia’s first airstrikes came in a statement early on September 30 by Kremlin spokesman Sergei Ivanov, just after the upper house of the parliament authorised military operations:

      To observe international law, one of two conditions has to be met – either a UN Security Council resolution or a request by a country, on the territory of which an airstrike is delivered, about military assistance.

      In this respect, I want to inform you that the president of the Syrian Arab Republic has addressed the leadership of our country with a request of military assistance.

      Within hours, witnesses were reporting that Russian jet fighters were bombing parts of Hama and Homs Provinces in western Syria. Activistssaid scores of people – almost all civilians – had been killed, disseminating videos and photographs of slain or injured children.

      Putin called the airstrikes a “pre-emptive” operation against the Islamic State – the official reason for Moscow’s military escalation inside Syria. The Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, said that “rumours that the targets of these strikes were not IS positions were groundless". The defence ministry, reporting 20 sorties on eight sites, released video of a supposed attack on an Islamic State headquarters.

      But even before the Russian leaders set out their line, witnesses and analysts had confirmed – through videos and geolocation as well as testimony – the real story of Moscow’s gamble: all but one of the targets were areas held by the opposition to Syria’s Assad regime, rather than by the Islamic State’s militants.

      Of course, Putin and Lavrov probably knew that their obfuscation would soon be exposed. It was all part of a high-stakes bet that with brazen propaganda, political manoeuvres and airstrikes, Russia can save Syria’s embattled president, Bashar al-Assad, from a likely downfall.

      Putin’s gamble

      Only six weeks before these strikes began, Russia’s efforts to save Assad were floundering. Working with Iran, Moscow had hoped to convince foreign powers to let Assad stay in power during a political “transition”. The US had appeared receptive, and John Kerry discussed the possibility with Lavrov in early August.

      But the Saudi foreign minister torpedoed the initiative, humiliating Lavrov at a press conference after their meeting in Moscow by insisting Assad relinquish power before any negotiations begin.

      The Saudis' rejection only deepened Assad’s plight. His weakened army, which lacks serious manpower and remains isolated in parts of Syria, has suffered a series of major defeats since the start of 2015.

      Here’s hoping. Reuters/Sana Sana

      Syria’s assorted non-Islamic State rebels had taken much of north-west Syria, including almost all of Idlib Province, so the opposition could establish an alternative government. These rebel blocs had also advanced across the south, along the Jordanian border, while Kurdish militia and the Islamic State held most of the north-east of the country.

      Combined with the tanking Syrian economy, the shifting military position raised the prospect that Assad would finally step down – or even that his government would completely collapse. The Syrian air force managed to avert a total defeat, but even this could not stop the rebels capturing government military bases over the summer.

      Assessing the situation, a cautious leader might have pulled back from the financial, material and reputational costs of backing Assad. But Vladimir Putin is not a cautious man: when confronted with weakness, whether his own or others', he clearly prefers to prove his strength with aggressive diplomatic and military moves.

      And so Russia laid a different path. Starting in mid-August, Moscow began building up its military position in western Syria.

      Plan B

      Russia expanded an airbase in Latakia Province, bringing in 34 jet fighters, about two dozen attack and transport helicopters, a strategic airlifter, and drones. Russia’s ships brought in advanced battlefield armoured vehicles and weapons. Several hundred additional troops weredeployed as “advisers” to Assad’s militia, not only in Latakia and Tartous provinces on the Mediterranean, but also near the front-lines in Hama and Homs provinces.

      Moscow’s initial denials of an escalation were just show. The message to the US and its partners was still clear: accept the political talks, with Assad retaining power during the negotiations, or there will be military operations.

      The ploy was mostly successful. Russia made the campaign palatable with the pretext that its forces were being positioned against Islamic State, allowing the US to replace its opposition with the acceptance of discussions for an “anti-IS” coalition. Britain and Germany agreed that Assad could stay pending a transition, paving the way for the US secretary of state, John Kerry, to say that the Syrian leader did not have to depart on “day one or month one” of a transitional period.

      The Saudis, however, would not budge. As their foreign minister, Adel al-Jubeir, repeated: “There is no future for Assad in Syria … One option is a political process where there would be a transitional council. The other option is a military option, which also would end with the removal of Bashar al-Assad from power.”

      Suspicious minds: Sergei Lavrov and John Kerry. Reuters/Andrew Kelly, CC BY

      Russia, which had already carried out drone surveillance to scout targets, then played another card with its airstrikes. Putin, who had proposed a grand “anti-Hitler” coalition in his UN General Assembly speech on September 28, effectively told the world to either join him or stand back as he bombs Syria and props up Assad’s military.

      Initially, US officials such as Kerry and defence secretary, Ashton Carter, complained that Washington had been treated rudely, with only one hour’s notice of the Russian operations, and that it appeared Islamic State had not been targeted. But by late afternoon on September 30, their objections were easing.

      After a meeting with Lavrov, Kerry put the emphasis on “deconflicting”to prevent an accidental US-Russian clash.

      Trouble ahead

      The initial success of Putin’s gamble does not guarantee a long-term pay-off. No display of military strength can in itself deal with threats and crises, both inside Syria and in Russia.

      Moscow’s warplanes can help the Syrian military keep a hold on its vital defence line, which runs from the Mediterranean to Homs and then to Damascus. But just as the Syrian Air Force has not been able to help Assad’s ground forces reclaim lost territory, Russia’s jet fighters cannot wage a front-line battle against the rebels.

      With no prospect of a revitalised Syrian Army, Putin is left with two unpalatable options: to either deploy Russian troops on the battlefield or accept the de facto partition of Syria – allowing the rebels to hold their positions in north-west and southern Syria.

      Meanwhile, Putin still has to face down a crisis in the Russian economy: there are difficulties with investment and production, the rouble is in perpetual trouble, prices for oil exports are falling, and international sanctions imposed during the Ukraine affair are biting hard.

      The Kremlin has already embarked on a series of anti-crisis measures – and Putin has so far defied the economic difficulties, arguably trying to divert attention from them through Russia’s aggressive approach to Ukraine. But with the Syrian push, he is adding yet another expenditure to the government’s overloaded books. While many Russians are so far sympathetic, with the Orthodox Church giving its blessing to the airstrikes, popular support could dissolve if there’s no quick resolution and the costs continue to stack up.

      With the US so far declining to raise a ruckus against Moscow, Putin can hope that Saudi Arabia finally gives way and joins the Americans and the Europeans to support Assad on a temporary basis. If that happens, Putin will have won his bet. But if the Saudis remain intransigent and the Americans' mood turns sour, his losses could be dire indeed.

      This article was republished from TheConversation.com.

      Read Full Article
      Next Story
      Our website is made possible by displaying online advertisements to our visitors.
      Please consider supporting us by disabling your ad blocker. Please reload after ad blocker is disabled.
      X

      Subscribe to BOOM Newsletters

      👉 No spam, no paywall — but verified insights.

      Please enter a Email Address
      Subscribe for free!

      Stay Ahead of Misinformation!

      Please enter a Email Address
      Subscribe Now🛡️ 100% Privacy Protected | No Spam, Just Facts
      By subscribing, you agree with the Terms & conditions and Privacy Policy connected to the offer

      Thank you for subscribing!

      You’re now part of the BOOM community.

      Or, Subscribe to receive latest news via email
      Subscribed Successfully...
      Copy HTMLHTML is copied!
      There's no data to copy!