The midterm elections are scheduled to be held in the United States on November 8 this year, which is a biannual and high stakes exercise second only to the presidential election. This election season, electors in the US will be electing a third of the US Senate, a fresh cohort to the House of Representative and 36 governors in gubernatorial races across the US.
A red-wave in favour of the Republican Party likely awaits, in what will make incumbent President Joe Biden's agenda - who hails from the Democratic Party - more convoluted. A Republican victory in both houses of US Congress would mean that Biden would have a harder time passing his government's plans through Congress, getting his appointments confirmed and that his administration would have to make more concessions.
This expected outcome in largely in line with that of a traditional midterm election, where the party of the sitting president has historically lost seats in either one or both chambers of the US Congress.
Data compiled by the Brookings Institute show that since 1862 to 2014, in a midterm election, the party of the incumbent president has gained seats in both houses in only four out of 39 elections: 1902, 1934, 1998 and 2002.
In 2018, when the last midterm took place while former President Donald Trump, a Republican, was in office the Democrats gained control of the House, but Republicans retained control of the Senate.
What are the midterms?
In the US, election day occurs on the Tuesday occurring between November 2 to November 8 every two years. Every alternative election holds the presidential election, an election to a third of the US Senate and to the entire House of Representatives.
The election held two years after that - between presidential elections - is called the midterm election, which is perceived to be a litmus test of the first two years of presidency.
The last election day was held on November 3 in 2020, that took place concurrently with the US presidential election that ousted and gave the incumbent Democrats control over the White House (under President Biden), and a slim majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Therefore, this election is a midterm poll, last held in 2018.
As the House of Representatives, which is the lower house of US Congress, is elected every two years, an election to the full house of 435 members is held every election cycle. In the last election, the Democrats won 222 seats, just above a majority of 218. Despite Biden beating Trump by four percentage points in 2020, the Democrats lost 13 seats, falling from 235 in 2018. The United States is divided into 435 constituencies (formally called electoral districts), with states like California and Texas, with larger populations, having more of these districts. A Representative represents their electoral district in the House and are directly elected by the people.
This midterm will see 35 seats in the Senate up for election, as a third of Senate retires every two years, making the term of a senator six years (where a senator is up for re-election every three election cycles of two years each). The Senate consists of 100 members where each state provides two senators regardless of population. Currently, the Senate is evenly split between both parties, but is in the hands of the Democrats since the Vice-President, Kamala Harris, is a Democrat and gets the casting vote. Of these 35, 21 are already held by Republicans, but the remaining 14 are in states that voted for Biden in 2020.
Further, there will also be 36 gubernatorial elections - those of the governors of 36 states. Governors head the governments at the state level, whose jurisdiction includes crucial policy issues policing, education, healthcare (including abortion) and environmental legislation. 20 of these are currenty held by Republican and 16 by Democrats.
What are the issues on the ballot?
Biden presided over several historic events.
The start of his term coincided with the worst phase of COVID-19 pandemic driven by the Delta variant of the coronavirus, alonside overseeing the rollout of the vaccination program in the United States. In May this year, he commemorated a million official deaths in the United States due to the pandemic. However, he declared the pandemic was over in September in what was largely considered to be an election stunt, as the World Health Organisation said that there was still a long way to go to get the pandemic under control despite widespread reopening.
His foreign policy also came under scrutiny after two major events. First, last year in August, the United States hastily withdrew from Afghanistan. Their entire military operation came in into question after the Afghan security forces trained by the US and its allies collapsed easily under a broader Taliban takeover of the country. Second, this year, Russia invaded Ukraine, causing Biden to rally the West under the NATO umbrella to streamline their military, financial and humanitarian support to Ukraine.
Locally, Biden and the Democratic Party have promised to codify abortion rights through legislation after the US Supreme Court in June struck down the Roe vs. Wade ruling that overturned federal protection to the issue. Their promise goes as far as saying that it would be the first piece of legislation in Congress post-election if the Democrats retained control of Congress. The US Supreme Court abrogating Roe meant that the court relegated the mandate of abortion over to the states. Several states - largely Republican controlled - have banned abortion immediately in all cases except in those that threaten life or are a result of rape or incest. Some states have even prohibited going out of state to get an abortion.
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On the economy, the US is also facing record inflation, as labour market shortages persist and the Federal Reserve aggresively hikes rate to reverse a pandemic-era easy money policy. It touched a high of 9% in June, and above 8.2% in July, August and September.
But labour market shortages mean that US workers have been able to dictate their terms and negotiate high salaries which is a remnant of pandemic-era skill crunches. Biden also approved the Inflation Reduction Act to combat inflation, that includes the most comprehensive climate change action program in history, as well as a student loans forgiveness program that aims to target 40 million recipients. The US owes nearly $1.6 trillion in student loan debt, the second largest debt category in the country after mortgages, which is ten times larger.
Key races to watch
Quite like most US races, key battles will be fought with close margins.
A key battleground is the state of Georgia, which Biden won in 2020, and which was won for the first time by a Democrat in 30 years. As the Democrats picked up both seats in 2020 (one of which was offcycle to fill after a senator's death), they were able to retain control of the Senate. In a battle that will go close to the wire, Trump-backed Hershchel Walker, a former football, is up against Democrat Raphael Wornock, a former pastor. Walker played for the New Jersey Generals; a team that was owned by Trump. Opinion polls show Walker lagging by just three percentage points.
Similarly, Democratic Stacy Adams will be facing off with incumbent Brian Kemp for the governorship. Adams is largely credited for her grassroot efforts in building a democratic base in the state. Currently, Kemp leads Adams by 6.8 percentage points.
In Pennsylvania, Lt. Governor and Democrat John Fetterman has just a one-point lead over Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz in the 2022's most unpredictable Senate race. Fetterman is recovering from a stroke he suffered in May and ails from an auditory processing disorder as a result. He sounds much differently now, as is evident from his campaign and debate than he did in May. During the debate with Oz and on the campaign trail, he and his campaign have faced questions on Fetterman's fitness to serve as a US senator. Oz, a surgeon and former television personality, is also under scrutiny for his past endorsements of alternative medication, boisterous healthcare hacks and false advertisement. If Oz is elected, he will be the first Muslim senator ever. While religion has not been a part of this race, Oz has extolled the virtues of a Muslim serving as a Republican Senator.
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